Simulação Social

Esta página apresenta algumas ideias e material sobre a proposta de discicplina de simulação social.

A incorporação de processos sociais é um grande desafio atual em modelos do sistema terrestre. Esta disciplina apresentará as principais técnicas de simulação social no âmbito da ciência do sistema terrestre.

• Limites da computação em simulação social (problema BAR)
• Modelos de equilíbrio geral e parcial (modelagem setorial, Leontief)
• Microsimulação
• Modelagem baseada em agentes
• Populações artificiais
• Modelos de uso da terra
• Modelos urbanos
• Otimização computacional
• Teoria de Jogos
• Recursos de Uso Comum

(trocar o “testing” por “modeling”) “Have the mindset of testing to learn, not testing to validate. This is where many people get tripped up; they try to perfect the idea rather than use a low-fidelity prototype to learn from people.”

-Brendan Boyle, Founder of IDEO Toy Lab

• Batty M. Cities and complexity: understanding cities with cellular automata, agent-based models, and fractals. The MIT press; 2007 Sep 3
• Urban Simulation: Models for Public Policy Analysis (Nato Science Series D:), by M.H. Whithed and R.M. Sarly

• http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.com/bozio-antoine/fr/documents/MS-lecture1.pdf
• https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/iser/2014-23.pdf
• Small Area Estimation and Microsimulation Modeling, by Azizur Rahman and Ann Harding
• Farm-Level Microsimulation Modelling, by Cathal O'Donoghue
• Spatial Microsimulation for Rural Policy Analysis, by Cathal O'Donoghue and Dimitris Ballas

• Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling, by Joshua M. Epstein
• Donkin, Dennis, Ustalakov, Warren, Clare, 2017. Replicating complex agent base models, a formidable task. Environmental Modelling & Software, 92, pp. 142-151.

The issue of validation is extremely important, and too often ignored by modelers, but fortunately there are excellent discussions in recent texts on ABM: chamter 11 in [1], chapter 7 in [2], and chapter 20 in [3], for example.

[1] Macal (2009) Agent-based modeling and artificial life. Encyclopedia of complexity and System science. R. A. Meyers.

[2] Wilensky and Rand (2015) An Introduction to Agent-based modeling: modeling natural, social, and engineered complex systems with NetLogo. Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.

[3] Railsback and Grimm (2012) Agent-based and Individual-based Modeling. Princeton, Princeton University Press.