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ser301-2011:wiki_atualmente [2011/10/02 00:58] leonardo |
ser301-2011:wiki_atualmente [2012/12/14 11:22] (current) leonardo |
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| + | ===== O que estou fazendo atualmente? ===== | ||
| + | Estou lendo esses dois artigos: | ||
| - | ==== O que estou fazendo atualmente? ==== | + | 1. Castillo-Chavez, C. et al. (2003). "Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city". Physical Review E 68, 066102. {{:ser301-2011:leonardo_scaling_laws_for_the_movement_of_people_between_locations_in_a_large_city.pdf}} |
| - | Os dados que uso, da epidemia de 1995 em Salvador, estão discutidos nesse artigo: http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2458-8-51.pdf | + | 2. Wong, L. et al. (2010). "Weighted complex network analysis of travel routes on the Singapore public transportation system. Physica A 389, 5852–5863. {{:ser301-2011:leonardo_weighted_complex_network_analysis_of_travel_routes_on_the_singapore.pdf}} |
| - | Essa epidemia é interessante para modelagem pq foi a 1ª da cidade, logo todos eram suscetíveis, e se sabe que foi um único sorotipo circulante (DEN 2) e que não houve nenhum tipo de controle vetorial. | ||
| - | Abaixo alguns tópicos do artigo, visando já o que será mais importante para nós: | + | E rodando novamente a rede para o estudo de OD da RMRJ (baseado no artigo do worcap: {{:ser301-2011:leonardo_worcap2012.pdf}}). Queria levar um resultado bom para discutir com o Flávio no final de janeiro. |
| - | === Tópicos do artigo === | ||
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| - | * Setores censitários de acordo com essa referência: http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/default_censo_1996.shtm | ||
| - | * Área: 313 km^2 | ||
| - | * Temperatura de 21 a 37°C (média: 25.3°C) | ||
| - | * Latitude 12° 55' 34" sul e longitude 38° 31' 12" oeste | ||
| - | * População: 2.300.000 habitantes. Densidade populacional de 7.35 habitantes por m^2. | ||
| - | * 74% dos casos poderam ser georeferenciados | ||
| - | * Área crítica: península itapagipana - Itapagipe | ||
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| - | * The southern tip of the city, which is the zone in which the population with the highest socioeconomic power lives and which includes the districts of Vitória, Graça (26), Garcia, Barris (24), Barra and Ondina (29), among others, fewer notifications were registered (in the range of 0–5 cases per census area). | ||
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| - | * Between the districts of the suburban railroad station and the airport and Itapuã, i.e. the entire northern region of Salvador, a pattern was found that was midway between the two types described above, with most census areas reporting between 6 and 16 cases. | ||
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| - | * These were generally areas with few inhabitants or none at all such as, for example, Pituaçu Park, the airport/Stella Maris area, Abaeté Park (Itapuã), the City Park (Pituba-36) and Canabrava (Salvador's former garbage dump), among others. | ||
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| - | * The first two cases of dengue notified in Salvador occurred in the first epidemiological week of 1995, and these were recorded in two neighboring census areas located in the district of Pernambués. During the following two weeks, five cases emerged in four geographically distant districts. | ||
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| - | * From then until week 23, new areas of the city gradually started to be affected, although a concentration of cases continued to be observed in Itapagipe. This spread was most intense towards the west (Baía de Todos os Santos), the east coast and the southern tip of the city. Nonetheless, some cases were also recorded in other areas of the northern part of the city during this period. | ||
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| - | * In week 31, there was a great dispersion in notifications, although the number of cases was relatively small (81). | ||
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| - | * The clear influence of the Itapagipe peninsula on the spread of cases of dengue to almost the entire urban area of Salvador may be seen from the centrifugal waves radiating from that area during almost all of these epidemiological weeks of 1995, and from the high numbers of new | ||
| - | cases of the virus, corresponding to more than one-third of all the notifications registered throughout the city. | ||
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| - | * Garbage collection and the supply of water for human consumption continue to be insufficient in Alagados [27], thereby providing ideal conditions for the proliferation of many species of mosquitoes, particularly Aedes aegypti [31]. These factors must have contributed towards making the district of Alagados and the Itapagipe peninsula the epicenter of this re-emergent disease and of vector transmission, thereby reproducing a disease pattern similar to those found in the past; however, in a different situation and of different magnitude. | ||
