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ser301-2011:wiki_atualmente [2011/09/30 19:39] leonardo |
ser301-2011:wiki_atualmente [2012/12/14 11:22] (current) leonardo |
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+ | ===== O que estou fazendo atualmente? ===== | ||
- | ==== O que estou fazendo atualmente? ==== | + | Estou lendo esses dois artigos: |
- | Os dados que uso, da epidemia de 1995 em Salvador, estão discutidos nesse artigo: http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2458-8-51.pdf | + | 1. Castillo-Chavez, C. et al. (2003). "Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city". Physical Review E 68, 066102. {{:ser301-2011:leonardo_scaling_laws_for_the_movement_of_people_between_locations_in_a_large_city.pdf}} |
- | Essa epidemia é interessante para modelagem pq foi a 1ª da cidade, logo todos eram suscetíveis, e se sabe que foi um único sorotipo circulante (DEN 2) e que não houve nenhum tipo de controle vetorial. | + | 2. Wong, L. et al. (2010). "Weighted complex network analysis of travel routes on the Singapore public transportation system. Physica A 389, 5852–5863. {{:ser301-2011:leonardo_weighted_complex_network_analysis_of_travel_routes_on_the_singapore.pdf}} |
- | + | ||
- | Abaixo alguns tópicos do artigo, visando já o que será mais importante para nós: | + | |
- | + | ||
- | === Tópicos do artigo === | + | |
- | + | ||
- | * Setores censitários de acordo com essa referência: http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/default_censo_1996.shtm | + | |
- | * Área: 313 km^2 | + | |
- | * Temperatura de 21 a 37°C (média: 25.3°C) | + | |
- | * Latitude 12° 55' 34" sul e longitude 38° 31' 12" oeste | + | |
- | * População: 2.300.000 habitantes. Densidade populacional de 7.35 habitantes por m^2. | + | |
- | * 74% dos casos poderam ser georeferenciados | + | |
- | + | ||
- | The map also highlights many geographically large | + | |
- | census areas in the region of the lower city in which the | + | |
- | incidence of the disease was high, particularly in the Itapagipe gipe peninsula, the historical center of the city and other | + | |
- | neighboring areas, as well as densely-populated districts | + | |
- | in the center of the city such as Liberdade, São Caetano and | + | |
- | IAPI. On the Atlantic coast, there is an area containing | + | |
- | many shantytowns that extends from the Rio Vermelho section | + | |
- | of Vale das Pedrinhas to the northeastern part of Amaralina, | + | |
- | which, albeit small, has similar characteristics of | + | |
- | high numbers of cases and dense population. Between | + | |
- | these two regions in which the concentration of cases is | + | |
- | high, there is another area (Brotas), which is at a slightly | + | |
- | higher altitude but in which the same high incidence of | + | |
- | dengue cases was found. All three of these areas are | + | |
- | densely populated and they form a band cutting through | + | |
- | the city from west to east, within which most of the census | + | |
- | areas registered between 17 and 166 cases (Figures 1 and | + | |
- | 3). | + | |
- | + | ||
- | In contrast, the southern tip of the city, which is the zone | + | |
- | in which the population with the highest socioeconomic | + | |
- | power lives and which includes the districts of Vitória, | + | |
- | Graça (26), Garcia, Barris (24), Barra and Ondina (29), | + | |
- | among others, fewer notifications were registered (in the | + | |
- | range of 0–5 cases per census area). | + | |
- | Between the districts of the suburban railroad station and | + | |
- | the airport and Itapuã, i.e. the entire northern region of | + | |
- | Salvador, a pattern was found that was midway between | + | |
- | the two types described above, with most census areas | + | |
- | reporting between 6 and 16 cases. In addition, there were | + | |
- | some census areas in various regions of the city in which | + | |
- | no cases were registered. These were generally areas with | + | |
- | few inhabitants or none at all such as, for example, Pituaçu | + | |
- | Park, the airport/Stella Maris area, Abaeté Park (Itapuã), | + | |
- | the City Park (Pituba-36) and Canabrava (Salvador's | + | |
- | former garbage dump), among others (Figures 1 and 3). | + | |
- | + | ||
- | The first two cases of dengue notified | + | |
- | in Salvador occurred in the first epidemiological week of | + | |
- | 1995, and these were recorded in two neighboring census | + | |
- | areas located in the district of Pernambués. During the following | + | |
- | two weeks, five cases emerged in four geographically | + | |
- | distant districts. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | From then until | + | |
- | week 23, new areas of the city gradually started to be | + | |
- | affected, although a concentration of cases continued to be observed in Itapagipe. This spread was most intense | + | |
- | towards the west (Baía de Todos os Santos), the east coast | + | |
- | and the southern tip of the city. Nonetheless, some cases | + | |
- | were also recorded in other areas of the northern part of | + | |
- | the city during this period. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | In week 31, there was a great dispersion | + | |
- | in notifications, although the number of cases was | + | |
- | relatively small (81). | + | |
- | + | ||
- | The clear influence of the Itapagipe peninsula on the | + | |
- | spread of cases of dengue to almost the entire urban area | + | |
- | of Salvador may be seen from the centrifugal waves radiating | + | |
- | from that area during almost all of these epidemiological | + | |
- | weeks of 1995, and from the high numbers of new | + | |
- | cases of the virus, corresponding to more than one-third | + | |
- | of all the notifications registered throughout the city. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Garbage collection | + | |
- | and the supply of water for human consumption | + | |
- | continue to be insufficient in Alagados [27], thereby providing | + | |
- | ideal conditions for the proliferation of many species | + | |
- | of mosquitoes, particularly Aedes aegypti [31]. These | + | |
- | factors must have contributed towards making the district | + | |
- | of Alagados and the Itapagipe peninsula the epicenter of | + | |
- | this re-emergent disease and of vector transmission, | + | |
- | thereby reproducing a disease pattern similar to those found in the past; however, in a different situation and of | + | |
- | different magnitude. | + | |
+ | E rodando novamente a rede para o estudo de OD da RMRJ (baseado no artigo do worcap: {{:ser301-2011:leonardo_worcap2012.pdf}}). Queria levar um resultado bom para discutir com o Flávio no final de janeiro. | ||